2023 Bears draft: 6 potential trades for No. 1 pick
All trade packages were calculated using a combination of PFF’s model simulator and NFL Draft Soup Calculator’s pick calculator. I would hardly consider myself the best option trade value indicator, so I relied heavily on these two tools to put these together. I weighted the trades slightly in favor of Chicago, seeing as there is likely to be stiff competition for the slightly inflated returns.
Houston Texas
All praise goes to Lovie Smith, the hero of Bears fans everywhere.
The Texans are guaranteed to have at least two of Bryce Young, CJ Stroud or Will Levis available to them with the No. 2. That being said, if they don’t want to leave anything to chance and want to ensure they get the top quarterback on board, a trade up a spot might be something they’ll have to consider .
Say the Texans want Young to be their new quarterback. Do they really want to risk the division rival Colts, who could offer as intriguing a package as any team for the No. 1, to go ahead of them and steal their son? It depends on what their board looks like. The discussion isn’t out of the question, though, and if the Bears are going to negotiate with Houston’s front office, the conversations start to include the first-round pick the Texans received in the Deshaun Watson trade. If that doesn’t work, you still have a massive variety of choices to choose from.
Texans get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
Bears receive: 2023 first-round pick (No. 2), 2023 second-round pick (No. 34), 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 104)
Indianapolis Colts
Keep your horses here; you’re telling me I’m practically guaranteed to get one of Will Anderson and Jalen Carter, AND I’ll get to rack up major project capital in the process? Where do I sign?
I strongly believe that, if the Colts want to move up and secure their quarterback of the future, they have the opportunity to put together the most attractive package for the Bears in the NFL. Since Andrew Luck’s retirement, they’ve thrown darts at Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan, with none of them sticking as long-term starting options. Although general manager Chris Ballard has a solid reputation around the league, the lack of consistent quarterback options has prevented the Colts from truly taking the next step under his leadership.
It was Ballard who was at the helm when the team hired Matt Eberflus as their defensive coordinator in 2018. The two have a great relationship together, and Ballard worked with Ryan Poles in the Chiefs’ front office from 2013 to 2016. The connections between The organizations are obvious, and the need for a trade exists for both teams. If the Bears do trade up in the 1st round of the 2023 draft, my unsourced guess is that Indianapolis will be the team they do it with.
Colts get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
Bears receive: 2023 first-round pick (No. 4), 2023 second-round pick (No. 35), 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 106), 2024 first-round pick, 2nd-round pick second 2024
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith’s resurgence was one of the biggest stories of the 2022 season. He played much better than anyone expected, and his play played a significant role in the Seahawks becoming a Wild Card team, despite being overwhelmingly considered a of the worst teams in the NFL heading into the year.
That said, the list of late bloomers to this extent isn’t exactly long. Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon are the only two successful quarterbacks over the last century who come to mind as players to string together a few mediocre, uneventful, or just plain bad seasons before finally becoming a star quarterback. You could make an argument for Alex Smith, but it’s still a thin list.
Geno is 32 years old and, as good as his season is this year, he was a perennial backup for his previous 7 seasons. As a football fan, I would like to see him maintain his level of success as his comeback story is truly remarkable. Still, the Seahawks would be wise to at least think about drafting a quarterback early in 2023, and if they fall in love with a prospect enough, they have the draft capital to do so. The hypothetical trade below gives Seattle a guaranteed shot at their QB1 in this class, and they would still have two second round picks to work with in this draft.
Seahawks get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
Bears receive: 2023 first-round pick via Broncos (No. 5), 2023 first-round pick (No. 20), 2023 third-round pick (No. 85), 2024 second-round pick, fourth round 2024
Las Vegas Raiders
The Derek Carr era in Raiders history appears to have come to an end after 9 seasons in black and silver. As they consider moving on from their long-time starter, it now becomes a question of which centre-back they would like to replace him with.
Currently sitting in election no. 7, Las Vegas would risk three quarterbacks going off the board before their current selection. Young looks like a lock to go at least in the first two picks, and Stroud and Levis certainly have enough buzz to warrant QB-needy teams selecting them early. The Raiders could take a shot at a raw prospect like Anthony Richardson, but their current spot seems too early for that (I also think Levis in the top 10 is a bit of a reach, but that’s a story for another article).
Even if the Raiders end up acquiring a veteran like Jimmy Garoppolo or Tom Brady, chances are they will need to invest in some young talent at quarterback as well. Davante Adams’ contract doesn’t make trading him to Las Vegas this offseason realistic, but the Bears would certainly be happy with a boatload of draft picks.
Raiders get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
Bears receive: 2023 first-round pick (No. 7), 2023 second-round pick (No. 39), 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 109), 2024 first-round pick, 2nd-round pick second 2024, second 2025 – round election
The Tennessee Titans
Let me state for the record that I think Malik Willis has the tools to develop into something much greater than what he is right now. That said, he had a rough rookie campaign in the playing time he did get, so much so that the Titans trusted Joshua Dobbs over him in their biggest game of the year.
Ryan Tannehill made the Titans play good football before he got hurt, but he’s coming off ankle surgery, turns 35 in July and would have $17.8 million free if the Titans cut him this offseason – $27 million dollars if they cut him after June 1. He should be able to start in 2023, but what is Tennessee’s plan after that? They fired general manager Jon Robinson in December, meaning the new regime may not be fixated on Willis.
No, by the way, the same thought process for a third-round pick shouldn’t be applied to a first-round pick from last year, for which the team traded significant draft picks to move up and bottom traded a second round pick for him. surround him with a new wide receiver.
If the new Titans regime wants to build toward the future and jump ahead of their AFC South rivals in the Texans and Colts, moving up to the No. 1 overall may not be completely out of the question. The Bears would be wise to begin hypothetical negotiations with Tennessee by asking for two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. He’s one of the best interior linebackers in the NFL, he’ll only be 26 next year, and Chicago will have more than enough money to sign him to a contract extension that starts in 2024 .
Titans get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
Bears get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 11), 2023 second-round pick (No. 42), 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick, 2025 third-round pick DT Jeffery Simmons
New York Jets
I personally would be surprised to see Zach Wilson as the Jets starting quarterback for the 2023 season.
Their front office may make some comments to the media, but his presence has brought dysfunction and controversy, and New York has cut him several times during the 2022 season. I think it’s a shame what happened to Wilson, the talent of whose arm and improvisational ability were excellent out of BYU, but pocket presence and lack of significant mental acuity have failed him in the NFL.
The jets are not in a place to rebuild and destroy everything right now. They have a fantastic defense with some intriguing young talent and their offense has plenty of future contributors when the group is healthy. If they truly believe they are only one quarterback away, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a move for a quarterback. Depending on how aggressive they want to be, they could trade with the Bears to acquire the top pick in the 2023 draft.
In doing so, Chicago would be wise to pursue Quinnen Williams, a Pro Bowler this year who played at an extremely high level and will be quite expensive for New York in the 2024 offseason.
Jets get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
Bears receive: 2023 first-round pick (No. 13), 2023 second-round pick (No. 44), 2024 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, DT Quinnen Williams
