2023 NFL playoffs: Week 18 clinching scenarios, tiebreakers for contenders, including Bills, Bengals changes
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After 17 weeks of football, the 2022 NFL season comes down to this. So which teams are still officially fighting for playoff spots as we head into Week 18? And how do each of them actually land a trip to the postseason? We’re so glad you asked. Below you’ll find an up-to-date summary of all the latest bracket scenarios for the remaining open playoff spots.
The NFL decided Thursday night to cancel the Bills-Bengals game, which was originally postponed Monday night after Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field. That means Cincinnati and Buffalo will only play 16 games this season, while all other teams will play 17.
There could be a neutral site AFC title game that would only take place under these scenarios:
Participating teams played a varying number of regular season games. The lower-seeded team in the championship game could have been the No. 1 seed. 1 in the AFL if a 17-game regular season had been played by all AFC clubs. Scenarios of the top three seeds
Chiefs (can be No. 1 or 2 seed):
Collect the #1 seed with a win Raiders OR Bills vs. Patriots If the Chiefs and Bills both win this weekend and they end up meeting in the AFC Championship, the game would be played at a neutral site. If the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals all lose this weekend, then a Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship would be played at a neutral site. If the Chiefs lose AND the Bills win, Buffalo would be the No. 1 seed and Kansas City would be No. 2 — and the possibility of an AFC Championship game at a neutral site would be NON-existent If the Chiefs and Bills lose AND the Bengals win – AFC Championship of the Bills/Chiefs OR Bengals/Chiefs would be at a neutral site.
Bills (can be number 1, 2 or 3 of the seed):
Collect a first-round bye AND home field advantage during the AFC playoffs with a Chiefs win AND loss (an AFC neutral-site championship would NOT come into play in this scenario. it was a 2 seed with a win AND a Chiefs win, or a loss AND a Bengals loss (If the Bills win AND the Chiefs win, and they meet in the AFC Championship, it will be played at a neutral site). It would be a 3 seed with a loss AND the Bengals would to win (Cincinnati would get the 2 seed in this scenario because it had already secured the tiebreaker.) If the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals all lose this weekend, then a Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship would be played at a neutral site.
Bengals (tightened by AFC North, could be No. 2 or 3 seed):
Collect seed no. 2 with a loss AND the Bills (Cincinnati would get the second seed in this scenario because it had already reached the strength of the tiebreaker). It would be the no. 3 loss OR gain bills. If the Bengals lose AND they are matched up with the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card round, a coin toss would determine home field advantage. The specific scenario for this to happen would be for the Bengals to lose at home to the Ravens and for the Chargers to win at the Broncos. If the Chiefs and Bills lose AND the Bengals win – a Bills/Chiefs OR Bengals/Chiefs AFC Championship would be at a neutral site. AFC South titleJaguars (8-8) clinch by: win/tie vs. TitansTitans (7-9) clinch by : win at JaguarsNo. 7 wild card seedPatriots (8-8) clinch with: win at Bills OR Dolphins loss vs. Jets AND Steelers loss vs. Browns AND Jaguars win vs. TitansDolphins (8-8) clinch with: win vs. Jets AND Patriots loss at BillsSteelers (8-8 ) click with: win vs Browns AND Dolphins loss vs Jets AND Patriots loss at BillsJaguars (8-8) click with: Titans loss AND Dolphins, Patriots and Steelers losses NFC ScenariosNo. 1 seed (bye + home field advantage)
Eagles are stuck with any of the following:
49’s are fixed with any of the following:
Win vs Cardinals + Eagles loss vs Giants
The Cowboys are associated with any of the following:
Commanders win + Eagles loss vs. Giants + 49th loss/tie vs. CardinalsNFC East titleEagles (13-3) click with: win vs. Giants OR Cowboys loss at CommandersCowboys (12-4) catch with: win loss Commanders AND Eagles vs. GiantsNo. 7 seed wild card Packers (8-8) clinch with: wins vs. vs. Packers AND Rams-Seahawks tie AND Commanders win vs. CowboysSeahawks (8-8) click with: win vs. Rams AND Packers loss/tie vs. Lions, OR tie vs. Rams AND Lions-Packers tie AND Commanders loss/tie vs. Cowboys
For a complete look at playoff standings, scenarios and projected first-round matchups across the NFL, check out our updated postseason prediction right here.
