How to Bet Alamo Bowl
Texas vs Washington odds
Although Washington and Texas haven’t met on the field in more than 20 years, there is plenty of familiarity between the two programs.
Steve Sarkisian is in his second year as Texas’ coach, having previously served as Washington’s coach from 2009-13. When Sarkisian needed a defensive coordinator in Austin, he hired Huskies coach Pete Kwiatkowski, who had served in the same role in Washington since 2014.
New coach Kalen DeBoer has been a tremendous success in Washington in his first season. The Huskies, just one year removed from a lifeless offense, are now a 10-win program with commitments from their top contributors to return for the 2023 season.
The Huskies are poised to contend for the Pac-12 title next year, but will be looking for their first win against a Power Five team since 2010.
The Longhorns’ identity may have a wrinkle heading into the Alamo Bowl. The defense found plenty of success this season stopping the opposing rush and generating a pass rush.
However, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown — a leader in pressures and tackles — has opted out of the Alamo Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Texas struggled to defend the pass most of the season, returning to an FBS-average mark in coverage and falling to 85th in allowing the explosive pass rush. Edge rushers Ovie Oghoufo and Barryn Sorrell will be crucial in beating Washington’s efficient passing attack.
Sarkisian has a laundry list of players missing on offense for this bowl game. Linebackers Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson have declared for the NFL Draft, while backup quarterback Hudson Card has committed to Purdue via the transfer portal.
The production in this bowl game will come down to quarterback Quinn Ewers. The redshirt freshman finished the season with twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions, but accuracy and decision-making have often ended Texas’ offense early.
Texas sophomore Xavier Worthy and junior Isaiah Neyor have been added to the Biletnikoff Award watch list, the Tallahassee Quarterback Club, Inc. Foundation announced Thursday.
— Anwar Richardson (@AnwarRichardson) July 21, 2022
Ewers will look to connect with his two most frequent targets in Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington. Any opponent that can generate a pass rush has brought down the efficiency of Ewers, who sees a 20% drop in adjusted completion percentage on pressure pass attempts.
More importantly, Ewers’ average target depth was held at 11 yards per throw all season. The former Ohio State quarterback averaged just 5.4 yards on average target depth over the past two games, an indication of injury or a limited playbook.
DeBoer served as the offensive coordinator at Indiana, which paid off on the transfer portal when Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. elected to land in Washington.
The fifth-year senior posted his best season in 2022, recording 29 touchdowns and dropping a turnover rate of 1.3%. Giving Penix more time in the pocket made all the difference, as his pressure-to-sack ratio dropped from 12.1% at Indiana to 3.6% this season.
The Huskies are the best team in the country in terms of pass success rate. Washington thrived against zone coverage and will play this game with its biggest weapons thanks to minimal draw and portal transfer activity.
The Huskies’ offense has been an efficient machine with a top-10 success rate and the nation’s highest mark in Havoc Allowed.
On the other side of the ball, co-coordinators William Inge and Chuck Morrell have improved the defense since last season. However, the Huskies are still susceptible to giving up the big play through the air.
Despite ranking outside the top 100 in the Havoc, Washington secured a pass rush grade of 25, per PFF. The Huskies average three sacks per game, looking to bring pressure with only the down line and minimal blitz.
Analysis of the game Texas vs. Washington
Change the dropdown below to hide or show how Texas and Washington match up statistically:
Washington Offense vs. Texas Defense Texas Offense vs. Defense Washington Pace of Play / Other PFF Tackle 109 38 Coverage PFF 104 63 SP+ Special Teams 63 41 Seconds Per Play 25.0 (37) 24.5 (29) Rush Rate 41.7 % (5.5) (125) ) Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics Texas vs Washington Pick, Prediction
Defensive coordinators were licking their chops when watching game film on how to defend against Ewers. TCU and Baylor had the most success getting Ewers off target, creating pressure on at least 25% of pass attempts.
A crowded pocket also resulted in missed targets, as 22 combined pressures by Oklahoma State and TCU resulted in seven wide receiver drops.
Washington finished the season 21st in PFF’s pass rush grade thanks to running backs Jeremiah Martin and Bralen Trice recording 50-plus quarterback hurries on the season.
The strength of Texas’ defense is its pass rush, but Washington’s offensive line has kept defenders away from Penix all season. Only 20% of Washington’s snaps saw pressure this season. Penix threw six touchdowns to two interceptions in those situations at a big-time strikeout rate twice his turnover-worthy game rate.
Of Penix’s 102 attempts in a crowded pocket, only four resulted in a sack. Losing Overshown could result in further issues for the Longhorns’ defense.
Kwiatkowski has run zone coverage on 75% of the losses this season, a bad formula with Penix under center in Washington. Wide receiver Rome Odunze is the sixth-highest graded target in college football against zone coverage, averaging nearly three yards per route run.
There won’t be any problems with a complete Washington offense that finished the season with the best third-down conversion percentage in the country.
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