New York Giants over Minnesota Vikings NFL Wild Card Weekend
Can Danny Dimes and Saquon Barkley lead the Giants past Minnesota? Image: Getty Images
I’ll be upset if there aren’t upsets during Wild Card weekend, which starts today. That upset might not happen in the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers matchup, and maybe not with the Los Angeles Chargers-Jacksonville Jaguars. But the bettors seem convinced that the biggest upset of the week will come from Brian Daboll, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and company.
What are the odds?
According to OddsChecker US, 83.3 percent of all bets on the Giants-Vikings money line have been placed on Big Blue. 83.3 percent! This sounds absurd, but it may not be as crazy as it seems. First, the 6-3 matchup has historically been pretty balanced. Since 2002, six seeds are 22-18 during Wild Card weekend. Keep in mind, these are all road games. Not only are the three seeds supposed to be the best teams, but they also have the home court advantage, and yet, more often than not, the six seeds manage to walk away victorious.
Do you really believe in Vikings?
Second, the Vikings have been considered frauds for weeks at this point. Every Vikings fan has heard the point differential arguments by now. They are the only team in NFL history with 13 or more wins and a negative point differential. Hell, they’re the only team with 12 or more wins to finish with a negative point differential. They have been embarrassed on the national stage on many occasions. That said, when games are close, the Vikings tend to do very well.
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Holding him close
Somehow, the Vikings are an incredible 11-0 in one-score games. They can’t stop when the going gets tough. You’ll remember one of those 11 wins was on a 61-yard field goal to beat the Giants in Week 16. However, the Giants are now well rested. They sat down their entire starting lineup in order to prepare for this game. The Vikings did it to an extent, too, with Kirk Cousins playing just 54 percent of the offensive snaps, Justin Jefferson playing just 51 percent, and star left tackle Christian Darrisaw playing just 54. However, that’s not a full week off. They were trying to win. They spent vital time preparing for the Chicago Bears that week. Given the Giants’ plan of action in Week 18, I wouldn’t be shocked if they were preparing for the Vikings two weeks from now. They’re going into this game with a plan so well-executed, Batman could have written it.
The story from their side?
However, Minnesota has experience on its side. In 2021, there were five quarterbacks making their first playoff appearance. They went 1-4 in those games. Daniel Jones will make his first postseason appearance tomorrow. This will be Cousins’ fourth appearance (third as a starter), and his final appearance without his first postseason win. He’s taken that metaphorical chip off his shoulder and it’s not weighing him down anymore.
You have a dog at war
The Vikings are coming into this game as three point favorites. Throughout the season, we’ve seen punters like to bet more than the favourites, in the hope of a massive payout. However, if that were the case, bettors would not flock to the Giants, but to the Dolphins (+13.5) and Seahawks (+9.5). The fact that the bettors will go to the underdog Giants by three points shows that they really believe the team will emerge victorious. While I’m concerned that the Giants won just two of their last eight games, a betting advantage this wild doesn’t just formulate out of thin air. You have to follow the money and that makes the Giants’ chances of winning better in my mind.
