PFT’s NFL Week 18 2022 picks
The final week of the regular season is here. And it was over.
It’s been over for a while, really. But with my 10-game lead intact after Week 17 (we split four games) and no 10 upsets this week, it’s formally a pinnacle.
We were both 11-4 last week. For the year, I’m 167-86-2. MDS is 157-96-2.
This week, we disagree on just one game. For all the choices, keep scrolling.
Chiefs (-9.5) at Raiders
MDS takeover: The Chiefs will take care of business in a must-win game to stay in the lead for the No. 1 seed. 1 in the AFC.
MDS Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 20.
Florio’s take: The Chiefs have been sleepwalking lately, but they’ll stumble their way to the No. 1 seed. 1 and everything it will bring to the end.
Florio’s pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24.
Titans (+6.5) at Jaguars
MDS’s take: The Titans don’t look like anything remotely resembling a playoff team right now. The Jaguars will win the AFC South championship game.
MDS pick: Jaguars 28, Titans 13.
Florio’s take: A year ago, the Jaguars held off the Colts in Week 18. Now, Jacksonville just needs a win to make the playoffs.
Florio’s pick: Jaguars 24, Titans 16.
Buccaneers (+4) at Falcons
MDS’s take: I doubt the Buccaneers’ core players will play more than a series or two.
MDS Pick: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 9.
Florio’s take: Tom Brady has never lost with the Falcons. And he wouldn’t lose to them this weekend if his coach would let him play the whole game.
Florio’s pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21.
Patriots (+7) at Bills
MDS View: It’s anyone’s guess how the Bills will play after the week they’ve had, but I suspect they’ll rally and play well.
MDS Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 17.
Florio’s take: I feel bad for whoever is dealing with the bills for the remainder of the season.
Florio’s pick: Bills 31, Patriots 20.
Vikings (-7) at Bears
MDS’ take: With Nathan Peterman as the starting quarterback, the Bears’ offense will be ugly.
MDS Pick: Vikings 21, Bears 3.
Florio’s take: The Vikings need a confidence builder as they prepare to inevitably lose by 30 or more points in the divisional round.
Florio’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 13.
Ravens (+7) at Bengals
MDS Take: With Lamar Jackson still injured, it’s hard to see the Ravens competing.
MDS pick: Bengals 28, Ravens 14.
Florio’s take: A coin flip won’t be needed.
Florio’s pick: Bengals 34, Ravens 20.
Texans (+2.5) at Colts
MDS’ take: The Texans just have to lose to win the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Lovie Smith has faced this situation before as coach of the Buccaneers, and he did what it took to lose that game. He will do it again.
MDS Pick: Colts 23, Texans 16.
Florio’s take: Tanks for nothing? Tanks for everything.
Florio’s pick: Colts 9, Texans 6.
Jets (-1) at Dolphins
MDS View: The Dolphins may be down to their third-string quarterback, but with a playoff spot possibly on the line, they’ll take care of business.
MDS pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 17.
Florio’s take: The Dolphins should sign Joe Flacco next year in recognition of their 2022 playoff berth.
Florio’s pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20.
Panthers (+3.5) at Saints
MDS take: Neither team has anything to play for, but the Saints looked last week like a team that wants to finish strong.
MDS Pick: Saints 24, Panthers 14.
Taking Florio: In a game with two teams with nothing to play for, take the home team.
Florio’s pick: Saints 27, Panthers 20.
Browns (+2.5) at Steelers
MDS’s take: After they were 2-6 at the end, the Steelers will win this game to finish the season with a winning record, an impressive turnaround.
MDS pick: Steelers 20, Browns 10.
Florio’s take: There’s no way the Steelers won’t finish 9-8 now that they’ve scratched and clawed their way back to .500.
Florio’s pick: Steelers 17, Browns 14.
Chargers (+1.5) at Broncos
MDS’s take: I don’t think the Chargers will play to win, as they’d prefer to be healthy for the wild card round.
MDS pick: Broncos 16, Chargers 13.
Florio’s take: The Chargers likely have nothing to play for by the time their game begins. Even then, the Broncos may not be able to close out another losing season with a win.
Florio’s pick: Broncos 20, Chargers 19.
Giants (+14) at Eagles
MDS Thought: The Eagles have the No. 1 seed. 1 to play. The Giants, locked in the No. 1 seed. 6, have nothing to play for.
MDS pick: Eagles 30, Giants 13.
Florio’s take: The 2007 Giants played hard in a meaningless final game. The 2022 Giants, given the spread, likely won’t be.
Florio’s pick: Eagles 27, Giants 17.
Cardinals (+14) at 49
MDS’s take: The 49ers are heading into the postseason looking like a tough team to beat, and they’ll handle the Cardinals without too much trouble.
MDS Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 20.
Getting Florio: After a near loss to the Raiders, the 49ers will want to rebuild before the playoffs begin.
Florio’s pick: 49ers 38, Cardinals 13.
Rams (+6) at Seahawks
MDS’s take: The Seahawks are still in the wild-card race, and they’ll have half their work cut out for them with a win over the Rams.
MDS Pick: Seahawks 21, Rams 14.
Florio’s take: Between Bobby Wagner’s return to Seattle, Baker Mayfield making a closing argument for a starting job and Sean McVay eyeing a TV ticket, the Rams pull away against a Seattle team that looks upset about not playing the Lions -Packers. in the same time.
Florio’s pick: Rams 24, Seahawks 20.
Cowboys (-7) at Commanders
MDS take: The Chiefs are throwing rookie quarterback Sam Howell out there for the first time, and the result won’t be pretty.
MDS Pick: Cowboys 24, Commanders 7.
Florio’s take: If Dallas can’t dominate the also-rans, what will the Cowboys do against the best teams?
Florio’s pick: Cowboys 27, Commanders 13.
Lions (+4.5) at Packers
MDS take: Packers must win to make playoff. They will do it.
MDS Pick: Packers 35, Lions 28.
Florio’s take: The Packers will be dangerous as a no-lose, no-pressure seventh seed. First, they must resist the all-to-lose proposition of a win-and-go final.
Florio’s pick: Packers 27, Lions 23.