Wild Card Sunday Predictions for Dolphins vs Bills, More

Follow Chris Raybon on the Action App to get all his NFL picks during the playoffs. NFL Wild Card Odds & Sunday Picks 1H Pick Bills Team Total Over 14 (Play to 14.5) Best Book Time 1:00 PM ET

The Bills have gotten off to a fast start at home this season, averaging a league-high 19.7 points per game in the first half. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense has surrendered 18.6 points per game in the first half on the road, which is the second most.

Buffalo has scored at least 14 points in six of its eight home games, and Miami has allowed at least 17 in seven of its nine road games.

With Skylar Thompson behind center, it will be difficult for the Dolphins to sustain moves, and the Bills are still riding the positive news surrounding Damar Hamlin’s recovery and are a good bet to come out strong in front of their home crowd once again.

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» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Giants +3 Best Book Time 4:30pm ET

Not only are the Vikings six points lower than the Giants in overall DVOA (27th vs. 21st), but they were outgained 445-353 by New York and were lucky to escape with a 27-24 win in Week 1. the 15th.

The Giants are one of the best-coached teams in the league, a big reason they went 6-5-1 outright as an underdog this season. After resting the starters and a full two weeks of preparation for the Vikings, a rematch should give the Giants an edge – just look at how the Vikings fared in the second meeting against the Lions and the Packers against the first.

MIN 23, GB 7 in week 1; GB 41, MIN 17 in week 17 MIN 28, DET 24 in week 3; DET 34, MIN 23 in week 14

Even though both of the second games were on the road for the Vikings, we’re talking about a swing of 27.5 points on average, which is 10 times more than you’d expect from home court advantage alone.

The Giants defense is underrated at this point. For the first time all season, they’ll have cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, safety Xavier McKinney and linebackers Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux all healthy at once.

The Vikings’ strength is their offense, so even an incremental improvement from the Giants’ defense compared to last game is enough to prevent Minnesota from pulling off another lucky win.

According to our Action Labs data, Wild Card dogs of seven or less are 29-18-1 (62%) ATS since 2003.

» Back to Table of Contents « Pick Irv Smith Jr. Under 15.5 Yards Receiving (-110) Best Book Time 4:30 PM ET

Smith returned from injury to lead a 34% route — compared to 43% for TJ Hockenson — last week in a game in which the Vikings pulled starters. But it’s unlikely Smith will cut Hockenson’s playing time with everything on the line, especially after Hockenson caught 13 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 16.

On average, the Vikings’ tight ends have combined for a 95% road completion percentage this season. Hockenson accounted for 80%, leaving only 15% for everyone else, meaning it would take a drastic increase in heavy personnel or reduction in Hockenson’s snaps for Smith to play a significant role.

Despite the playing time he saw in the regular season finale, Smith still only managed 14 yards on three catches. His ADOT was just 2.7 in that game and is just 5.1 for the season, which could allow Smith to catch 2-3 passes in this game and keep going downfield.

I projected Smith for 1.4 catches and 12 yards. This can be played up to 12.5 yards.

» Return to Table of Contents « Pick Joe Mixon Under 84.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) Best Book Time 8:15 pm ET

Mixon compiled just 68 scrimmage yards on 16 touches against the Ravens last week and will likely struggle again.

On the ground, the Ravens have allowed just 684 yards on 192 carries (3.56 YPC) and held Mixon to 27 yards last week. And Mixon’s receiving production could take a hit if he has to stay inside to pass protect more with the Bengals missing multiple players along the offensive line.

It’s worth noting that Mixon’s usage has been down with Samaje Perine playing well and is no guarantee of a playoff return.

Mixon is averaging 75% of the non-QB designed carry shares and a 50% route participation rate on the season, but over the last four games, he has seen 69% of the designed runs and a 44% route participation rate .

Even when I project Mixon using his season averages, he still falls short of hitting 80 combined rushing and receiving yards. I would play this at 78.5.

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