NFL Playoff Picture: Who to root for in Week 17 if you’re a Washington Commanders fan
Outside of the Washington Commanders loss to the San Francisco 49ers, almost everything went perfectly for Washington in Week 16. The fear of losing their playoff luck was put to rest when Detroit Lions (7-8) and Seattle Seahawks (7-8) lost the first few games of the game.
Now, with winnable games on the horizon, there should be less reliance on the Commanders losing playoff contention to extend Washington’s season. Games against Cleveland Browns (6-9) and Dallas Cowboys (11-4) — who have a loss or an Eagles win with no reason to play their starters in Week 18 — are tied for the teams they’ve beaten this season.
But nothing is taken for granted with this team, so there are some results that would be beneficial for Washington even if they can’t lock down a playoff spot on their own.
It comes down to a race between the Commanders, Lions, Seahawks and the Resurgents Green Bay Packers (7-8). The other teams are still in contention, but if any member of that group goes 2-0, they have an excellent shot at making the playoffs. Burgundy and Gold, of course, have a leg up on the rest.
Washington is vying for one of the final two Wild Card spots. of New York Giants (8-6-1) leads the pack with a 91% chance of getting one, per FiveThirtyEight. The Commanders are second at 29%, followed closely by the Seahawks (27%), Packers (27%) and Lions (24%). of Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) could be dethroned as NFC South champion by Carolina Panthers (6-9) and also play a factor. of New Orleans Saints (6-9) also holds an outside shot at the Wild Card.
There’s not much to worry about in terms of draws. The Chiefs lost the only one that likely mattered when they fell to the Giants in Week 15. Another draw would have to be included for a traditional draw to be a factor with the rest of the teams.
No one clinched a spot in the NFC last week, but Dallas guaranteed no worse than the No. 1 seed. 5 in the playoffs. of Atlanta Falcons (5-10) were eliminated.
This leaves eight teams competing for the final three spots.
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There is a methodology for this guide. The initial selection of which team to root for is based on the assumption that Washington wins the remainder of the season (resulting in a 9-7-1 record). The only time it won’t be is when there is a greater benefit in direct playoff positioning between the Commanders and another team for one game.
Tie procedures are considered with head-to-head results taking precedence, followed by win-loss percentage in divisional games (for NFC East opponents) and best record for games played within the NFC for all others.
So far Washington has draws against the following teams:
-Green Bay Packers (7-8) – head to head
Burgandy and Gold have lost ties against these teams:
-New York Giants (8-6-1) – head to head
-Detroit Lions (7-8) – head to head
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) – conference record
Tiebreakers not yet determined by contending teams:
Seattle Seahawks (7-8) and New Orleans Saints (6-9)
Washington Week 17 Rooting Guide
Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)
Thursday, December 29 at 8:15 PM ET
Dallas can now only finish as the No. 1 seed. 1 or seed no. 5. For Washington’s sake, the best-case scenario is that the Cowboys lock in on the No. 1 seed. 5 as the best Wild Card. If that happens this week, then Dallas could be without their starters for a full game in Week 18.
Getting there would require either a Dallas loss or an Eagles win, so root for the Titans.
Chicago Bears (3-12) at Detroit Lions (7-8)
Sunday, January 1st at 1pm ET
Suddenly rising Leos are in a sticky situation. Their playoff chances are just 24%, which is now fifth among teams in the Wild Card race with just two spots up for grabs, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Detroit is right behind Washington in the playoff standings. If the Commanders and Seahawks both go 1-1 and the Lions go 2-0, then it’s Detroit that claims No. 7. But that requires your playoff hopes to be in the hands of other teams.
A Washington win and a Lions loss would eliminate Detroit entirely. Root for the Bears.
Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1) at New York Giants (8-6-1)
Sunday, January 1st at 1pm ET
Washington can still pass the Giants for No. 6. That’s where the tiebreaker comes into play, but New York still holds this one. To overcome the tiebreaker, the Commanders must go 2-0 and the Giants 0-2. Root for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Sunday, January 1st at 1pm ET
It’s always great when a score can help commanders doubly. An Eagles win locks up Dallas at No. 5 and makes the Cowboys’ Week 18 matchup with Washington meaningless. A Saints loss eliminates them from playoff contention. Root for the eagles.
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Sunday, January 1st at 1pm ET
Carolina’s only path to the playoffs is by winning the NFC South. By beating the Buccaneers, they would move into the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and would have to win in Week 18 to get there. Doing so would fix the Buccaneers in the Wild Card race.
Washington already has many teams competing for their Wild Card spot, root for the Buccaneers.
Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Washington Commanders (7-7-1)
Sunday, January 1st at 1pm ET
Here we are. Washington remains in control of their playoff destiny. This time they don’t have to rely on other teams losing to maintain that advantage. Their way is so simple. Win their last two games and they’re in.
Entering the game with a 29% chance of making the playoffs, they are second – behind the Giants (92%) – fighting for the No. 1 seed. 6 and no. 7.
And here’s how that changes…
Profit: 50%
Loss: 7%
Draw: 17%
Yes, a win would be a good idea, root for Commanders.
There is also a scenario where Washington could be eliminated with a loss this week. A loss to the Browns + a Packers win against Minnesota + a Lions win over the Bears would end the Commanders season. Detroit’s Week 18 game against Green Bay would be a de facto play-in game.
New York Jets (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-8)
Sunday, January 1st at 4:05pm ET
This is one of the biggest games in the NFL this week. It’s basically a losing game and you’re out for two teams sitting on the outside of the playoff picture.
However, Washington is only concerned about the Seahawks and their loss. Seattle enters the weekend with a 27% chance to make the playoffs, the team most likely to beat the Commanders for the No. 1 seed. 7. Root for the planes.
Minnesota Vikings (12-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-8)
Sunday, January 1st at 4:25pm ET
The Green Bay Packers won’t go away quietly overnight. While everything went right for the Commanders last week with a loss, everything went right for Green Bay as well.
A Packers win plus a Commander loss puts Green Bay in the postseason. Root for the Vikings.
