Rams vs Seahawks Pick, Prediction
We look for a Rams vs. Seahawks pick as Los Angeles travels to Seattle on Sunday afternoon to try and upset the host’s playoff chances. The Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to enter as the No. 1 seed. 7 in NFC.
In Week 13, when these teams met in Los Angeles, Geno Smith pitched a nearly perfect game, but the Rams still covered the 6.5 spread. In that game, Los Angeles held the Seahawks’ defense to 171 yards on 33 attempts, marking the change in how Sean McVay’s offense would succeed in the latter part of the season.
The Rams’ rushing attack has remained strong over the past month, and they will once again be able to exploit this glaring weakness in Seattle’s defense.
Rams vs. Seahawks Odds Rams vs. Seahawks Matchup Analysis
Change the dropdown below to hide or show how the Rams and Seahawks match up statistically:
Rams vs. Seahawks DVOA Overall Comp DVOA 24 21 Passing DVOA 23 18 Rush DVOA 22 24 Overall DVOA 13 19 Passing DVOA 9 24 Rush DVOA 24 13
It’s been a tumultuous year for Cam Akers. However, very few players have played better since Week 13, when these teams first played.
Akers’ resurgence has included 18.2 touches per game, an average of 4.9 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns. During that span, the Rams’ offense ranks 14th in the league in DVOA, a massive improvement over what we saw through most of 2022.
The success Akers has had on the field has gone a long way in making Baker Mayfield look like a viable quarterback option. The entire philosophy of this offense is based on containing Mayfield’s efforts and giving him easy play-action throws. Mayfield has thrown just one interception in his four games as a Ram, a marked improvement from six in his seven games as a Panther.
Bet Los Angeles vs. Seattle on FanDuel
The key to this NFC West matchup will be whether the Rams can successfully implement their new style of offense.
The Seahawks’ run defense ranks 24th in adjusted scrimmage yards given up to opposing running backs and stuffs just 16% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage. Those numbers are in line with their 25th ranking in yards per carry allowed (4.8).
Only five teams have given up more first downs than Seattle. Over the past six games, the Seahawks defense is 29th in rushing defense DVOA. I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which the Rams’ running game is stifled.
It may also surprise you that since their previous meeting, the Rams’ passing attack, on a play-by-play basis, has been more effective than the Seahawks’.
Seattle ranks 20th in DVOA over its last four games through the air. The Rams passing game ranks eighth. In fact, Seattle’s offense, which ranked sixth in DVOA through the first nine weeks, is 21st since Week 10.
Teams motivated to make the playoffs, playing against a team eliminated from playoff contention, have not covered the spread to a high degree.
Of the previous 42 games in which we’ve seen this scenario play out, the team with “nothing to play for” has covered at a rate of 61.9% – and when those teams are capturing more than one wicket, they’ve covered the spread in a extraordinary rate of 68.7%.
Additionally, road underdogs of six points or more are 12-3 (80%) against the spread this season. McVay’s teams have been a road loss by three or more points just eight times in his short coaching career, in which the Rams are 5-2-1 against the no. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll is 6-16-2 (27.3%) as a favorite for six or more points over the last six seasons.
The Seahawks defense just isn’t strong enough for this team to consistently win by a margin. Similar to a must-win game they played against the Panthers at home in Week 14, Seattle is bound to lose time of possession and the turnover battle if it can’t limit the Rams’ ground attack. The Panthers controlled the line of scrimmage in that game and ran for 223 yards.
I expect a similar game plan from the Rams, which should keep things interesting until the end.
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