Washington Capitals Weekly Trends: Slideways Into The Break
Welcome to the 14th installment of our weekly Washington Capitals trend report. The regular feature provides a very brief snapshot of the most important statistical trends for the capital cities over the past seven days.
The table below lists the Capitals team stats and league standings for last week (left side) after 49 games, and the current stats and standings for today after 53 games. Colors indicate improving (green) and/or worsening (red) trends over the past week. [Click to enlarge]
[The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NoVa Caps Advanced Analytics Model (NCAAM). If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary]
WEEK
The Capitals started the week with a 3-2 loss to the Avalanche in Denver, which was followed by a 3-2 win over the Penguins last Thursday. The team then went on the road (again) for a 5-1 loss to the Maple Leafs in Toronto and closed out the week with a 4-3 overtime win against the Blue Jackets in Columbus.
NEGATIVE
Shooting Percentage – The Capitals’ team shooting percentage (8.24%) at five-on-five dipped again and is again below the league average of 8.34%. [Click to enlarge].
Possession Metrics – All of the Capitals’ key possession metrics declined over the past four games, though the small declines had little impact on their overall league ranking for either stat.
The Capitals still remain in the healthy range in terms of expected percentage targets, although the recent trend has been down for two weeks. Through 20 games played (xGF% of 56.03%) continues to increase team stats over 53 games. [Click to enlarge].
Goals For and Against – The Capitals also took a slight hit in their goals for and against, although once again their overall league standings stayed the same or actually improved.
positives
Penalties – There’s not much in the green belt for this photo of the week. The Capitals continue to improve in penalties taken and penalties taken, and now have the third-best penalty kill average in the league.
Shots Per – The Capitals’ shots per game average also saw a slight increase for this week’s snap. It should be noted that shots against saw a very slight increase, with the team remaining 10th in the league.
PDO – If you believe in the value of this statistic, then the significance here is that the “fate” of the capital is equalized and stands at 1.00.
FIRST WEEK
The Capitals are off for the week and will return next Thursday, February 9 for their first practice. They will practice again next Friday before heading to Boston ahead of their first game against the Bruins next Saturday. They then return home for a three-game homestand starting next Sunday against the San Jose Sharks, followed by the Hurricanes the following Tuesday and the Panthers the following Thursday.
By Jon Sorensen
SEASON TOTAL
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About Jon Sorensen Jon has been a Caps fan since day one, attending his first game at the Capital Center in 1974. His interest in the Caps has grown over the decades and includes time as a season ticket holder. He has been a reporter covering the team for 10+ years, focusing primarily on analysis, analytics and prospect development.
