War game simulations find China failing to invade Taiwan at a huge cost to all, including US and Japan

War game simulations find China failing to invade Taiwan at a huge cost to all, including US and Japan


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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will result in defeat, but at a great cost to all parties involved, including the US and Japan, according to a war game analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The Washington, D.C.-based study brought together military experts to predict possible outcomes for the hypothetical conflict, which remains a global concern amid ongoing cross-strait tensions and China’s ultimate goal of retaking the self-ruled island — by force if it is required.

In a total of 24 war game simulations, CSIS found that China experienced the most casualties, suffering the loss of about 10,000 troops, 155 warplanes, 138 large ships, and the imprisonment of about 30,000 Chinese survivors on the island. Such a failure, as well as counterattack damage in mainland territories, could destabilize the ruling Communist Party, experts said.

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However, China’s military might is expected to cripple the victors for a long time. Taiwan is expected to lose about 1,100 troops, as well as all destroyers and warships; Japan, acting as a US base and reinforcement, will lose 112 aircraft and 26 warships; and the US could lose 3,200 troops, 270 aircraft and 17 warships.

Such losses would “harm the US’s global standing for many years,” according to CSIS, leaving Washington with a “cheap victory” in which it suffers “in the long run rather than the ‘defeated'” Chinese.

“We came to two conclusions,” said Eric Heginbotham, co-author of the report and a security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, according to AFP. “First, under most circumstances, China is unlikely to succeed in its operational objectives, or capture Taipei. Second, the cost of war would be high for all involved, certainly including the United States.”

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The CSIS report also noted that there is no “Ukraine model” for Taiwan. The island’s victory depends on several factors: its determination to fight, Japan’s permission to allow the US to use its territories, and Washington’s ability to “strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and massively from outside the Chinese defense zone.” .

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“Once the war starts, it’s impossible to send troops or supplies to Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies to Ukraine continuously,” Mark Cancian said. , co-author. and senior adviser with the International Security Program at CSIS, according to CNN. “Whatever the Taiwanese will fight the war with, they must have it when the war begins.”

In October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping set a goal of modernizing the People’s Liberation Army by 2027. Last month, US President Joe Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act, which includes providing $10 billion in aid for Taiwan in the next five years.

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Read the full report here.

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